The power sector is a fundamental pillar of the so-called energy transition, a process
driven by the policies agreed in the framework of the UNFCCC – COPs. In particular, the
COP21 commitment has been signed by all the Mediterranean countries and is supported
by the main political initiatives within the Region.
Opportunities for a massive renewable energy sources (RES) development rely on a very
high potential in terms of wind and/or solar irradiation in most Mediterranean countries.
In addition, a substantial reduction in the cost of renewable energy technologies in the
past decade reinforces the economic interest in giving renewables a major place in the
energy mix.
However, despite its increasing economic competitiveness and the existence of abundant
resources, the development of renewables remains limited by power system integration
constraints, particularly by the need to extend national grids to the high-potential RES
areas and the limited deployment of solutions for managing intermittency – namely
storage and interconnections.
With a view to facilitating this transition, as well as contributing to a more effective
operation of the existing system, the Mediterranean Association of Transmission System
Operators (Med-TSO) has defined an action plan, where one core task is the development
of the Mediterranean Masterplan (MMP). This plan, which identifies and assesses a set
of interconnection projects, starts with the elaboration of Med-TSO 2030 Reference
Scenarios, exploring possible future situations in which the national power systems
interact to eventually form a comprehensive and coordinated Mediterranean Power
System. The aim of these scenarios is to build the path from the present to different
possible future trends (demand, electricity generation, sector coupling, technologies
evolution, policies and decarbonization targets) to give a robust framework for grid
development studies.
Assuming that the Mediterranean countries account for 7% of the world population
and consume around 8% of the world’s primary energy demand, one of the challenges
for developing credible scenarios lies in the fact that the Mediterranean Region
is characterized by striking contrasts in economic and industrial development, in
international coordination, and in energy sector regulation. Northern Mediterranean
countries face relatively stable demand for electricity, while Southern Mediterranean
nations face a sharp increase.
Considering these differences, Med-TSO has developed long-term scenarios that
incorporate the uncertainties affecting the way in which the energy transition would
take place in each of the Mediterranean countries. The process has been initiated with
workshops (in early 2021) during which the expert members of Med-TSO determined the
issues and expectations related to the scenario building, leading to the identification of
the main drivers that are likely to impact the evolution of national power systems, and
their associated uncertainty margins.
Secondly, several combinations of these drivers were built in a coherent way, with
particular attention paid to preserving the Mediterranean identity of the scenarios. This
step led to the elaboration of three scenarios, including the drafting of their detailed
storylines; these three scenarios are built to be distant enough from each other to
cover most of the uncertainties that could arise within the study’s time-horizon. The
description of these scenarios should guide data collection for each country, on one
hand ensuring the compliance with national projections, while on the other, ensuring
overall consistency.
European countries are subject to a specific approach given the aforementioned
contrasts and the weight of European energy and climate policy, which implies reinforced
coordination within ENTSO-E and the establishment of a correspondence with the
scenarios developed for the TYNDP 2022.
2.1 What is driving the energy transition in the Mediterranean?
The energy transition process calls for a paradigm-shift in the transformation of the
energy sector from fossil-based to low/zero-carbon. The current global and national
policies aim to reach this transition by the second half of this century.
At the core of these strategies is the need to reduce energy-related CO
2
emissions to
limit climate change, as the energy sector accounts for around 40% of the total direct
CO
2
emissions worldwide. Decarbonization of the energy sector requires urgent action
on a global and regional scale, and while a global energy transition is underway, further
action is needed to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change.
According to
IRENA , Renewable energy and energy efficiency measures could potentially
achieve 90% of the required carbon emissions reduction.
2.2 The Mediterranean Region's resources and barriers for the energy transition
UNFCCC reports point to the Mediterranean Basin as one of the areas most exposed
to the impacts of climate change. On the other hand, the Mediterranean Region holds
great potential for clean energy, which makes it capable of tackling the challenge of
energy transition.
The Mediterranean Basin presents exceptional natural and geographical conditions
for the development of renewable energies: its solar irradiation and wind potential are
among the highest at global level and can be exploited to the benefit of the Region and
of neighbouring-high demand areas.
Moreover, Med-TSO studies have shown significant complementarities across the
Region, both in generation and in load profiles, to be leveraged through a set of
new interconnections. As of today, there is already an unbalanced electricity supply,
with Northern Mediterranean Countries facing an occasional excess availability of
intermittent renewable generation and Southern Countries facing challenges in
ensuring sufficient supply to their power systems.
In addition to these characteristics, it is worth mentioning that the Region is highly
committed to the energy transition: all the Mediterranean States are signatories of the
Paris Agreement, and the EU countries are bound by European targets set out in the
European Green Deal (55% CO
2 reduction in 2030).
Nonetheless, the Mediterranean still suffers from a non-deployed integration potential,
due to:
Policy Framework: while the Northern Shore countries are gathered under a strong
institution with enforcing authority, such as the EU, which sets decarbonization
targets, the same level of integration does not exist in the South and East
Mediterranean countries.
Energy infrastructure: currently, there are 10 interconnections between the EU
and neighbouring countries; among them only two have a Southern and Eastern
Mediterranean border: Türkiye and Morocco. The same weakness exists regarding
the South-South interconnections.
2.3 The Mediterranean Region's drivers towards energy transition
The key elements defining the scenario selection strategy are:
To reflect the latest developments in national energy and climate policies that are in
line with European greenhouse gas reduction ambitions.
To acknowledge the need for high ambition in terms of European energy efficiency
and renewable energy deployment.
To acknowledge the uncertainties associated with either pushing such renewable
development and energy efficiency to the maximum or relying on low-carbon
technologies and energy imports.
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