The Scenario Report

The chapter on electricity generation is composed of two main parts. The first covers the installed capacity, with values expressed in MW and GW, while the second covers the generation mix, i.e., energy expressed in TWh, in this case per year. The second part also presents the projected situation. of the Mediterranean Power System using other indicators, for example annual CO² emissions, the average marginal price or the balance of electricity exchanges between countries.

In order to provide a perspective of these results, the presentation of the three scenarios for 2030 is complemented with values for the year 2020, which serves as an historical reference.


Total installed capacity


The three scenarios show the rapid continuation of the coal and lignite power plant phase-out by 2030, with a particular acceleration in shutdowns in several Mediterranean countries in South- Eastern Europe. The generation capacity of gas-fired power plants remains generally constant, a trend which corresponds to a reduction in capacity in most European countries of the Mediterranean, while the trend is the opposite in the MENA countries, particularly in the Mediterranean Ambition scenario.

The evolution of the nuclear capacity is a constant global trend, even showing an increase (+ 11 GW) in the Mediterranean Ambition scenario, in which the capacity in Europe is maintained while a significant development is noted in certain MENA countries (Türkiye and Egypt). A brief overview of the total installed capacity for the three scenarios compared with 2020 historical data in all Mediterranean countries is shown below.


Figure 5-2 shows that Northern countries (Spain, France, Italy, and Portugal) have higher installed capacity for the PR than for the MA scenario, due to the high potential of RES development. The lower increase in the MA scenario installed capacity is due to the stabilized demand and energy efficiency. Southern countries (Egypt, Jordan, Morocco) and Türkiye demonstrate the opposite situation, i.e. a higher increase in installed capacity in the MA scenario compared to the PR scenario, which means that the efforts made by improving energy efficiency are more than covered by higher economic growth and the ambition to export RES Energy.

This aspect is clearly seen in Figure 5-3, which represents the breakdown of total installed capacity for each scenario by Mediterranean regional grouping.


Additionally, the percentage shares of each Mediterranean regional group for all the scenarios (and 2020 historical data) are shown in Figure 5-4.


Although the North-West countries keep the higher share of installed capacity in the three scenarios, it is noticeable from Figure 5-4 that their percentage share is practically the same across different scenarios.

Figure 5-5 presents a detailed overview of the installed capacity for the three scenarios and the historical year 2020 by generation technology for all the Mediterranean regional groups.


For the North-West countries, in the 2030 scenarios, there is no use of coal, lignite and oil, as opposed to what can be observed in 2020. Conversely, in these countries, there is a noticeable increase in the RES share, which represents around 70% in the three scenarios, as opposed to 50% in 2020. The nuclear power plants are mainly found in this region, whose installed capacity sees a slight decrease, like that which is observed for gas.

North-East countries invest more in nuclear power plants (Türkiye) and decrease their capacity in oil and lignite plants. Additionally, they continue to promote RES integration (from 55% in 2020 to a max of 70% in 2030 in the PR and MA scenarios).

The gas power plants are the main technology in the South-West and the South-East regions among the three scenarios. In the South-West countries, almost the entirety of oil capacity is decommissioned in the three scenarios. Meanwhile, some South-East countries expect investments in oil-shale power plants.

The RES capacity increases significantly in the southern region, mainly driven by the sharpest PV cost decline over the past decade, combined with good to excellent natural resources.

Figure 5-6 shows an overview on the percentage share of total installed capacity by generation technology for the Mediterranean countries in 2020 and in the 2030 scenarios. The values for the installed capacity in GW can be found in Appendix 7.1.




In comparison with 2020, by 2030, a large proportion of the oil capacity will decrease, especially in Albania, Cyprus, and Croatia, being replaced by gas. Alternatively, some countries invest in oil, as is the case of Malta and Jordan (oil-shale).

Investments in nuclear generation are foreseen in Egypt and Türkiye in the three scenarios.
In the 2030 time-horizon, Spain and Italy show a full decommissioning in coal, lignite and oil capacity. Tunisia increases its capacity of RES compared to 2020, by increasing the share of wind, solar but also hydro storage in its total installed capacity, while Albania, Portugal and Croatia present the highest integration of renewable energy. Compared to 2020, Morocco decreases its share in oil and coal in the three scenarios, while Italy decommissions all its oil capacity and significantly increases its RES capacity share.


Figure 5-7 shows a significant and swift increase in solar development by scenario. Such projected evolution is based on the sharp PV cost decline that has already been seen in the past decade, combined with the high available potential in Mediterranean countries. The PR scenario foresees a value of almost six times that observed in 2020.


With regards to wind capacity, the projected development in the three scenarios is less expressive than that of solar. This is primarily explained by the capital cost associated with wind projects, which is relatively higher than solar projects, but also in several countries by the advanced maturity of wind industry relative to a saturation of the onshore potential. Nevertheless, the projected increase in wind power is significant, especially in the PR scenario, with values in 2030 reaching almost three times the installed capacity observed in 2020.

As for the hydro installed capacity, it is worth mentioning that the presented figures show a combination of hydro pump storage projects and new dam projects. The growth projected in hydro development is much more limited when compared to solar and even to wind power. The projected growth for hydro is similar in the three scenarios.

The figure below shows the breakdown of RES installed capacity for each scenario across the Mediterranean regional groups.


Similar to what is observed for the total installed capacity, Figure 5-8 shows that the development of RES (hydro, wind, solar and other RES capacity) increases from the Inertial scenario to the Mediterranean Ambition scenario for South-West, North-East & South-East countries, while in the North-West countries, the Proactive scenario presents the highest installed RES capacity. It is also very clear that North-West countries present the highest installed RES capacity in all scenarios. Figure 5-9 shows a detailed percentage share of total installed RES capacity by Mediterranean regional groups for 2020 and for the Med-TSO 2030 scenarios.


Despite the projected overall significance of the North-West countries in terms of the total RES installed capacity, there is a projected decrease in its percentage of total RES over the three scenarios.

Much of the installed RES capacity (in terms of GW) is concentrated on the North coast, especially in Spain, France and Italy for solar and wind, while hydro is mostly concentrated in Türkiye, Italy and France.

An overview of the Wind and Solar Atlas is presented in the following figures, followed by a detailed map that shows the development of hydro, wind, and solar projects against the total installed capacity for each scenario. The Atlas Map provides a clear view on the existing RES potential in the Mediterranean Region.



Share of renewable capacity by technology and by country


*Unified scale from 0 to 99%

In 2020, 99% of the generation mix in Albania was based on hydro, while in 2030, Albania is expected to diversify its mix and, according to the project scenarios, decrease its share of hydro generation to 82%, 76% and 75% (for the IN, PR, MA scenarios respectively).


*Unified scale from 0 to 60%

Wind penetration is mainly concentrated in the North & South-West countries, especially in Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Spain and Portugal, and all scenarios forecast a significant increase. Almost 40% of the generation in Morocco & Portugal is expected to be provided by wind.


*Unified scale from 0 to 40%

It is also clear that all the countries are expected to develop solar, and consequently there is an improvement in their solar generation in the three scenarios compared to 2020. According to the Med-TSO 2030 scenarios, the highest solar penetration would be in Cyprus, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Greece, and reaches up to 40% in the PR scenario.



Share of renewable generation by technology Figure 5-28 Total RES source and shared percentage of total demand (2020 historical data and Med-TSO 2030 scenarios) Figure 5-28 shows the overall RES technology, RES penetration and its percentage against total demand per scenario. We can observe that in these scenarios, demand increases by 1.3 to 1.5 times what it was in 2020, while RES penetration increases by 1.5 to 1.86 times. Solar and wind penetration increases significantly from 4% to 19% and from 9% to 23% respectively in the PR scenario, while the hydro ratio decreases by around 3% compared to 2020.

According to these scenarios, for the whole Mediterranean Region, the integration of renewables could be around 55% in the PR scenario and 45% in the Inertial and MA scenarios, vs 29% in 2020. The percentage of RES penetration for all Mediterranean countries for the reference year 2020 and for the three projected scenarios for the year 2030 is presented in Table 5-2. The RES penetration percentage is the total RES generation divided by the total load, expressed in %.



A comparison of the data from 2020 with the three potential scenarios incorporated anticipated efforts to increase the RES penetration in all Mediterranean countries in all scenarios. The PR scenario clearly has the highest percentages of RES penetration in practically all cases. Some countries have a RES penetration reaching 100% (i.e., Montenegro).


Figure 5-29 depicts the direct annual CO2 emissions (in Mtons by year) from electricity generation and the average CO2 content of electricity generation (in gCO2/kWh) per scenario. It is evident that the three scenarios foresee a reduction of the annual CO² emission compared to the estimation (the direct CO2 emission estimation for 2020 assumes the following emission factors - gCO2/kWh - from fossil-fuelled electricity generation: coal 900, lignite 1200, gas 400, oil 700, and other non-renewables 500) for 2020 by roughly 19%. For the average CO2 content of electricity generation, a similar percentage reduction is foreseen when compared to the 2020 values, ranging from 36% to 50%, depending on the scenario.



The embedded effort of each Mediterranean regional group to reduce annual CO2 emissions in the three scenarios, can be seen in Figure 5 31. This shows that the North-West group is expected to massively reduce its annual CO2 emission by 47%, 59% & 63% in the Inertial, PR & MA scenarios respectively. The South-West group could see an increase in annual CO2 emissions in all scenarios, because of a prevailing dependency on fossil fuel generation. The North-East is expected to reduce its annual CO2 emissions by 15% to 32%. The South-East group countries anticipate a decrease in the PR scenario, while the Inertial and MA scenarios show values that are in line with what was observed in 2020.





The effort by each Mediterranean regional group to reduce the average CO2 content of electricity generation (in gCO2/kWh), associated with the three scenarios, is shown in Figure 5-31. It is noticeable that, according to these scenarios, the North-West countries expect to massively decrease the CO2 content of their generation by around two thirds (55%, 71% & 74% in the Inertial, PR and MA scenarios respectively). The rest of the groups (South-West, North-East & South-East) anticipate a reduction ranging from 28% to 44% in the different scenarios, due to the ambitious targets of RES integration for the North-West countries.

Figure 5-32 shows the annual CO2 emission per country in 2030. According to the Med-TSO 2030 Scenarios, the highest annual CO2 emission in Mtons among the Mediterranean countries is anticipated in TR, due to the significant use of gas, coal and lignite in the generation mix foreseen in the 2030 time-horizon.



While the graph of total CO2 emissions shows broad dispersion, this is not the case for the expected average CO2 content of electricity generation. In fact, most Mediterranean countries expect an average CO2 content of electricity generation of between 0 and 371 gCO2/kWh. In contrast, seven countries (Albania, Spain, France, Croatia, Montenegro, Bosnia Herzegovina and Portugal) present an expected value of CO2 content of less than 58 gCO2/kWh by 2030, as shown in Figure 5-33.




This chapter presents the outlook for the Mediterranean electricity system from the perspective of an indicator obtained from the simulations. This is the annual average marginal price per country.

The average marginal price constitutes an interesting indicator insofar as on one hand, it results from the competitiveness of the national generation fleets and the supply-demand balance, and on the other, it constitutes an indicative parameter of the electricity exchanges between countries, as a direct consequence of economic optimizations.

Figure 5-34 presents the average marginal price by country for the National Development scenario (in €/MWh).



As a result of the highest renewable energy generation share, and other relatively low-cost generation, Portugal, Spain, and France have the lowest marginal price among the Mediterranean countries (around €48 /MWh), followed by Morocco €53 /MWh).

Conversely, Syria, Lebanon, and Libya show, in this scenario, the highest marginal price (in the range of €87- €92 /MWh) in the region, which can be explained by a tight supply-demand balance and by significant electricity generation from oil.

Türkiye also shows one of the highest marginal prices (€83 /MWh), which results on one hand from a relatively inefficient thermal generation fleet, and on the other, from a low import capacity, which limits opportunities on its Western border for importing electricity at a lower price. The same observations can be made in the other 2030 scenarios, Figure 5-35 shows the marginal price in the Green Development scenario.



In the PR scenario and with the ambitious efforts to develop more RES, marginal prices decrease in all countries.



Figure 5-36 shows the MA scenario and efforts towards energy efficiency.


Combined with marginal prices, the examination of the national balance for each country is of interest in the study of the Masterplan to anticipate the opportunities for the development of interconnections. The annual balance can be expressed either as a gross value (in TWh per year), or as a relative percentage of national electricity consumption.

Figure 5-37 shows the country balance versus the national load for different scenarios and countries. We can observe the effect of different scenario configurations on the countries for either importing or exporting situation.





As seen in Figure 5-38, France is the highest exporter while Italy is the highest importer in terms of TWh, and Spain becomes a net exporter in the PR & MA scenarios compared to 2020. The strongest annual balances, whether in import or export, are observed among the North-Western Mediterranean countries. France is the main exporting country (between 82 and 96 TWh according to the scenario), while Italy is the main importing country (between 32 and 35 TWh). Such levels are possible because of strongly interconnected systems.