Electricity demand growth, when analyzing either recent trends or the projections for the different
shores of the Mediterranean, reveals an intense contrast. While demand growth is expected to
maintain its recent trend of increase south of the Mediterranean Sea with a significantly high rate
(between 2% and 4% per year), demand trends in the Western European countries show it is
expected to remain constant.
This chapter represents a description of the data set related to demand, including an analysis of the
whole Mediterranean area, on a sub-regional scale and at country level, to illustrate the differences
in terms of demand evolution in the Mediterranean Power System.
4.1 Electricity demand forecast by scenario and by region
Figure 4-1 shows the annual demand forecasts for all Mediterranean countries up to 2030 for the
three scenarios. Due to the massive impact of COVID-19 in 2020, the reference year for the
electricity demand is 2019. The scope of electricity demand incorporates all uses of electricity, losses
included, as well as new uses such as electric mobility. It includes the share of consumption satisfied
by auto-production (for example self-production through solar panels on the roof in the residential
sector). However, the electricity consumption of electrolyzers, which constitutes an energy
transformation from electricity to hydrogen, is excluded from the scope of electricity demand.
Figure 4-1 Annual demand forecasts for all Mediterranean countries up to 2030
The Inertial scenario shows an extension of the past trend over the next decade, with consumption
by 2030 of 2400 TWh, i.e., an increase of 19% compared to the reference year 2019. This
corresponds to an average annual growth of + 1.8% in electricity consumption. In this scenario, the
development of new uses remains moderate, and no break with the trend of the last five years is
anticipated.
In both the Proactive and Mediterranean Ambition scenarios, the demand growth is much more
marked, with consumption reaching nearly 2700 TWh in 2030, an increase of 33%. This corresponds
to an average annual growth of +2.9% in electricity consumption in one decade, driven by
favourable economic and demographic conditions, but also by a more marked development of new
uses of electricity, for example in mobility, and more generally, by an increase in the share of
electricity to meet the energy needs of human activities.
The data mining for the load demand of each country and for each scenario was performed based
on statistical and historical data. In total, there are 23 different entities (countries, cf. Figure 3-3)
examined, covering the whole Mediterranean Region and divided into four sub-regions according
to their location. Figure 4-2 shows the subdivision of the annual electricity demand between the
identified four regions of the Mediterranean from 2019 to the three scenarios of 2030. With respect
to the drivers, each scenario has a different rate of evolution in relation to load consumption.
Figure 4-2 Electricity demand by region and for the Mediterranean area for the three scenarios with 2019 data
For all the scenarios, demand growth remains comparatively weaker in the countries of the North-
West region, which confirms the trend observed in the last decade. Consequently, while in 2019 the
electricity consumption of the countries located in the north-west of the Mediterranean
represented around 55% of the consumption for the entire Mediterranean, this proportion should
drop to around 47% by 2030 in the three scenarios, similarly compensated by the other three
regions. Figure 4-3 shows the demand share among regions for the three scenarios.
It should also be noted for the countries of the North-West region, that the demand projection by
2030 is in continuation of the stable trend for the Inertial scenario, while it shows significant growth
(+17%) for the two other scenarios, which translates into the development of the electrification of
uses in connection with the energy transition.
This difference between scenarios is much weaker for the other countries, on the one hand because
the Inertial scenario includes for a trend of growth in electricity demand these countries linked to
demographics and economic development, and on the other, because the energy transition factors
remain almost undetectable in terms of consumption at the 2030 time-horizon, with regard, for
example, to the slow progress of electric mobility.
Figure 4-3 Comparison of the demand share among regions for the three scenarios with the situation in 2019
Other complementarities among Mediterranean countries
While the relative evolution of electricity consumption among Mediterranean countries by 2030
provides a first indication of exchange opportunities, the load of each country is examined in more
detail, with reference to the historical data from 2019. Forecasts are firstly examined for each
scenario at country level and an additional level of detail is added with the examination of
consumption curves on an hourly basis.
Figure 4-4 provides the load data of each country of the Mediterranean area for the three scenarios
with the data from 2019.
Figure 4-4 The electricity demand of each country of the Mediterranean area for the three scenarios with 2019 data
A more detailed examination of consumption can provide additional information, starting with
seasonality. The seasonality of electricity consumption is a direct consequence of the use of
electricity for heating in winter and for air conditioning in summer. Excess consumption during these
periods is therefore the result of two combined elements: first, the general climatic conditions in a
country and the temperature range covered during the year; second, the development of heating
and air conditioning equipment and building construction techniques. Therefore, a cold climate
does not automatically imply an increase in electricity consumption in winter, especially when the
general heating fuel is natural gas.
An accurate modelling of those phenomena is not only important to assess the seasonal demand
profile, but above all to measure the effect of the strongest cold or heat waves that can strike any
countries in exceptional moments. This question is of prime importance for addressing the security
of supply issues and sizing of peak generation capacity.
Figure 4-5 illustrates the seasonality of the demand (in the Inertial scenario) for each Mediterranean
country. For each month of the year, the colour indicates the ratio between the average monthly
consumption and the average annual consumption (the scale covers the range 0.8-1.3 from light
yellow to purple).
Figure 4-5 Monthly demand in the National Development scenarios for each Mediterranean country
In France, in several Balkan countries, and in Palestine the peak load is observed during winter
where the demands for heating are higher and electric heating is well developed. On the contrary,
the load during summertime is higher in most of the North African countries (particularly in Algeria
and Tunisia), in Cyprus and Greece, but also in Italy and in Spain, as the demand for cooling is
imperative and covers a large period from June to August.
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