Electricity demand growth, when analysing either recent trends or the projections for
the different shores of the Mediterranean, reveals an intense contrast. While demand
growth is expected to maintain its recent trend of increase south of the Mediterranean
Sea with a significantly high rate (between 2% and 4% per year), demand trends in the
Western European countries show it is expected to remain constant.
This chapter represents a description of the data set related to demand, including
an analysis of the whole Mediterranean area, on a sub-regional scale and at country
level, to illustrate the differences in terms of demand evolution in the Mediterranean
Power System.
4.1 Electricity demand forecast by scenario and by region
Figure 4-1. Annual electricity demand forecasts for all
Mediterranean countries (2019 reference year and 2030 scenarios)
Figure 4-1 shows the annual demand forecasts for all Mediterranean countries up
to 2030 for the three scenarios. Due to the massive impact of COVID-19 in 2020, the reference year for the
reference year for the electricity demand is 2019. The scope of electricity demand
incorporates all uses of electricity, losses included, as well as new uses such as electric
mobility. It includes the share of consumption satisfied by auto-production (for example
self-production through solar panels on the roof in the residential sector). However, the
electricity consumption of electrolyzers, which constitutes an energy transformation
from electricity to hydrogen, is excluded from the scope of electricity demand.
The Inertial scenario shows an extension of the past trend over the next decade, with
consumption by 2030 of 2400 TWh, i.e., an increase of 19% compared to the reference
year 2019. This corresponds to an average annual growth of + 1.8% in electricity
consumption. In this scenario, the development of new uses remains moderate, and no
break with the trend of the last five years is anticipated.
In both the Proactive and Mediterranean Ambition scenarios, the demand growth is
much more marked, with consumption reaching nearly 2700 TWh in 2030, an increase of
33%. This corresponds to an average annual growth of +2.9% in electricity consumption
in one decade, driven by favourable economic and demographic conditions, but also
by a more marked development of new uses of electricity, for example in mobility, and
more generally, by an increase in the share of electricity to meet the energy needs of
human activities.
The data mining for the load demand of each country and for each scenario was performed
based on statistical and historical data. In total, there are 23 different entities (countries,
cf.
Figure 3-3 ) examined, covering the whole Mediterranean Region and divided into four
sub-regions according to their location.
Figure 4-2 shows the subdivision of the annual
electricity demand between the identified four regions of the Mediterranean from 2019
to the three scenarios of 2030. With respect to the drivers, each scenario has a different
rate of evolution in relation to load consumption.
Figure 4-2. The electricity demand by
Mediterranean Region in 2019 and for the three 2030 scenarios
For all the scenarios, demand growth remains comparatively weaker in the countries
of the North-West region, which confirms the trend observed in the last decade.
Consequently, while in 2019 the electricity consumption of the countries located in the
north-west of the Mediterranean represented around 55% of the consumption for the
entire Mediterranean, this proportion should drop to around 47% by 2030 in the three
scenarios, similarly compensated by the other three regions.
Figure 4-3
shows the demand share among regions for the three scenarios.
It should also be noted for the countries of the North-West region, that the demand
projection by 2030 is in continuation of the stable trend for the Inertial scenario, while it
shows significant growth (+17%) for the two other scenarios, which translates into the
development of the electrification of uses in connection with the energy transition.
This difference between scenarios is much weaker for the other countries, on the one hand
because the Inertial scenario includes for a trend of growth in electricity demand these
countries linked to demographics and economic development, and on the other, because
the energy transition factors remain almost undetectable in terms of consumption at the
2030 time-horizon, with regard, for example, to the slow progress of electric mobility.
Figure 4-3. Comparison of the demand share among
regions for the three scenarios with the situation in 2019
Other complementarities among Mediterranean countries
While the relative evolution of electricity consumption among Mediterranean countries
by 2030 provides a first indication of exchange opportunities, the load of each country
is examined in more detail, with reference to the historical data from 2019. Forecasts
are firstly examined for each scenario at country level and an additional level of detail is
added with the examination of consumption curves on an hourly basis.
Figure 4-4 provides the load data of each country of the Mediterranean area for the three
scenarios with the data from 2019.
Figure 4-4. The electricity demand of each country of
the Mediterranean area for the three scenarios with 2018 data
A more detailed examination of consumption can provide additional information, starting
with seasonality. The seasonality of electricity consumption is a direct consequence of
the use of electricity for heating in winter and for air conditioning in summer. Excess
consumption during these periods is therefore the result of two combined elements:
first, the general climatic conditions in a country and the temperature range covered
during the year; second, the development of heating and air conditioning equipment and
building construction techniques. Therefore, a cold climate does not automatically imply
an increase in electricity consumption in winter, especially when the general heating fuel
is natural gas.
An accurate modelling of those phenomena is not only important to assess the seasonal
demand profile, but above all to measure the effect of the strongest cold or heat waves
that can strike any countries in exceptional moments. This question is of prime importance
for addressing the security of supply issues and sizing of peak generation capacity.
Figure 4-5 illustrates the seasonality of the demand (in the Inertial scenario) for each
Mediterranean country. For each month of the year, the colour indicates the ratio between
the average monthly consumption and the average annual consumption (the scale covers
the range 0.8-1.3 from light mauve to dark mauve).
Figure 4-5. The electricity demand of each country of
the Mediterranean area for the three scenarios with 2018 data
In France, in several Balkan countries, and in Palestine the peak load is observed during
winter where the demands for heating are higher and electric heating is well developed.
On the contrary, the load during summertime is higher in most of the North African
countries (particularly in Algeria and Tunisia), in Cyprus and Greece, but also in Italy and
in Spain, as the demand for cooling is imperative and covers a large period from June
to August.
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