6. Benchmarking
While Med-TSO has been establishing scenarios for 2030 for several years as part of its
Mediterranean Masterplan, the technical and economic context and the commitment to
energy transition have gradually led countries to revise their power system development
prospects. For the Region, it is likely that the most striking fact is the spectacular drop
in the cost of solar generation, but also a strong appropriation of wind production
technologies, while the whole Mediterranean benefits from natural resources that are
highly favourable to these technologies.
Moreover, in recent years, electricity consumption may have been affected in many ways
� foremost by less favourable economic conditions than expected. Most Mediterranean
countries have been affected by the COVID-19 crisis and its disastrous consequences
on the tourism sector, and by the ensuing sharp increase in energy prices, which have
directly affected the demand for electricity in many economic sectors.
However, some countries have significantly revised their electricity demand forecasts
upwards for 2030 due to the growing electrification rate of human activities with a view
to energy transition and decarbonization of the energy sector.
The definition of Med-TSO scenarios has consequently been revised to best fit into this
changing context. Nevertheless, it is possible to make comparisons between scenarios
based on the following correspondence.
Date of issue
2023
2020
2018
Scenario A
Inertial
National Development
Business as usual
Scenario B
Proactive G
Green Development
Green future
Scenario C
Mediterranean
Ambition
Mediterranean
Evolution
Green future and
marketing integration
Table 6-1 Correspondence between three consecutive Med-TSO Masterplan scenarios
For these three types of scenarios (A, B, and C), the following graphs show the evolution of the electricity
demand and generation capacity projections over the three consecutive Masterplans.
6.1 From the demand side, a slower trend, and greater contrast
While the type A scenarios are essentially built on a trend approach and on a cautious view of the prospects
for economic growth, we note with each update of the scenarios, first MP2 compared to MP1, then for
TEASIMED, that the projection for 2030 has been lowered significantly, while the growth in demand has
generally slowed between 2015 and 2019. For Mediterranean Project 1 published in 2018, the type A
scenario 'Business as usual' presented a projection for 2030 with growth of 36% compared to the situation
in 2016, while the comparable scenario for TEASIMED presents growth of 23%.
Figure 6-1 illustrates the evolution of demand in all Mediterranean countries between 2015 and 2019 and
presents all the scenarios by 2030 for the three successive Masterplans.
Figure 6-1. Demand forecast Med-TSO scenarios benchmark (TWh)
Besides this general downward adjustment, TEASIMED projections also show a greater contrast between the
three scenarios, consequently demonstrating a marked increase in the electrification of uses in the PR and
MA scenarios, particularly in the field of electric mobility. This contrast corresponds to approximately 1%
additional growth per year in electricity demand in these two scenarios compared to the Inertial scenario.
Such contrast was not as clearly expressed in previous editions of the Med-TSO Masterplan. This gap is
mainly driven by the marked increase in the electrification of uses in European countries by 2030.
6.2 On the generation side, a rise in renewables
The fall in the cost of solar generation has had a spectacular effect on the development of installed capacities
in the Mediterranean countries. For example, the capacity increased by 12% per year over the period 2015-
2020.
Figure 6-2 presents the evolution of the solar capacity installed in all the Mediterranean countries
between 2015 and 2019 and outlines the projection for all the scenarios by 2030 for the three successive
Masterplans.
Figure 6-2. Solar capacity Med-TSO scenarios benchmark
As a result of the strong and rapid emergence of solar production in the Mediterranean countries, the
projection for 2030 has been multiplied almost two-fold in the type A scenario, the most conservative
between MP1 and TEASIMED, and multiplied more than three-fold the type B scenario, the most ambitious
in terms of renewable perspectives.
While wind generation is more mature, having started its boom at least ten years earlier, this same type of
trajectory acceleration is also clearly visible, as shown in
Figure 6-3 .
Figure 6-3. Wind capacity Med-TSO scenarios benchmark (GW)
From 2015-2020, wind power capacity increased by approximately 7% per year for all Mediterranean
countries, supported by very good natural resources and by PR development policies implemented in many
countries (development of industrial sectors, logistics, securing investments, etc.).
The projection for 2030 for the type A scenario of the MP1 Masterplan was almost reached by 2020, thereby
dismissing the most conservative forecasts.
For TEASIMED, the projection for the type A scenario by 2030 implies a continuation of the trend observed
over the 2015-2020 period, which amounts to a doubling of capacity compared to the vision of MP1.
As for solar power and wind capacity, forecasts for 2030 have been revised upwards very significantly in all
scenarios with each new edition of the Med-TSO Masterplan, thus confirming the dynamism of these sectors
in the Mediterranean.
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