The Scenario Report

6. Benchmarking
While Med-TSO has been establishing scenarios for 2030 for several years as part of its Mediterranean Masterplan, the technical and economic context and the commitment to energy transition have gradually led countries to revise their power system development prospects. For the Region, it is likely that the most striking fact is the spectacular drop in the cost of solar generation, but also a strong appropriation of wind production technologies, while the whole Mediterranean benefits from natural resources that are highly favourable to these technologies.

Moreover, in recent years, electricity consumption may have been affected in many ways - foremost by less favourable economic conditions than expected. Most Mediterranean countries have been affected by the COVID-19 crisis and its disastrous consequences on the tourism sector, and by the ensuing sharp increase in energy prices, which have directly affected the demand for electricity in many economic sectors. However, some countries have significantly revised their electricity demand forecasts upwards for 2030 due to the growing electrification rate of human activities with a view to energy transition and decarbonization of the energy sector.

The definition of Med-TSO scenarios has consequently been revised to best fit into this changing context. Nevertheless, it is possible to make comparisons between scenarios based on the following correspondence.

Other complementarities among Mediterranean countries

Mediterranean Masterplan version
Mediterranean Project 2
Mediterranean Project 1
Date of issue
Scenario A
National Development
Business as usual
Scenario B
Green Development
Green future
Scenario C
Mediterranean Ambition
Mediterranean Evolution
Green future and market integration
Table 6-1 Correspondence between three consecutive Med-TSO Masterplan scenarios

For these three types of scenarios (A, B, and C), the following graphs show the evolution of the electricity demand and generation capacity projections over the three consecutive Masterplans.

From the demand side, a slower trend, and greater contrast

While the type A scenarios are essentially built on a trend approach and on a cautious view of the prospects for economic growth, we note with each update of the scenarios, first MP2 compared to MP1, then for TEASIMED, that the projection for 2030 has been lowered significantly, while the growth in demand has generally slowed between 2015 and 2019. For Mediterranean Project 1 published in 2018, the type A scenario 'Business as usual' presented a projection for 2030 with growth of 36% compared to the situation in 2016, while the comparable scenario for TEASIMED presents growth of 23%.

Figure 6-1 illustrates the evolution of demand in all Mediterranean countries between 2015 and 2019 and presents all the scenarios by 2030 for the three successive Masterplans.

Figure 6-1 Demand forecast Med-TSO scenarios benchmark

Besides this general downward adjustment, TEASIMED projections also show a greater contrast between the three scenarios, consequently demonstrating a marked increase in the electrification of uses in the PR and MA scenarios, particularly in the field of electric mobility. This contrast corresponds to approximately 1% additional growth per year in electricity demand in these two scenarios compared to the Inertial scenario. Such contrast was not as clearly expressed in previous editions of the Med-TSO Masterplan. This gap is mainly driven by the marked increase in the electrification of uses in European countries by 2030.

On the generation side, a rise in renewables

The fall in the cost of solar generation has had a spectacular effect on the development of installed capacities in the Mediterranean countries. For example, the capacity increased by 12% per year over the period 2015- 2020. Figure 6-2 presents the evolution of the solar capacity installed in all the Mediterranean countries between 2015 and 2019 and outlines the projection for all the scenarios by 2030 for the three successive Masterplans.

Figure 6-2 Solar capacity Med-TSO scenarios benchmark

As a result of the strong and rapid emergence of solar production in the Mediterranean countries, the projection for 2030 has been multiplied almost two-fold in the type A scenario, the most conservative between MP1 and TEASIMED, and multiplied more than three-fold the type B scenario, the most ambitious in terms of renewable perspectives.

While wind generation is more mature, having started its boom at least ten years earlier, this same type of trajectory acceleration is also clearly visible, as shown in Figure 6-3.

Figure 6-3 Wind capacity Med-TSO scenarios benchmark

From 2015-2020, wind power capacity increased by approximately 7% per year for all Mediterranean countries, supported by very good natural resources and by PR development policies implemented in many countries (development of industrial sectors, logistics, securing investments, etc.). The projection for 2030 for the type A scenario of the MP1 Masterplan was almost reached by 2020, thereby dismissing the most conservative forecasts.

For TEASIMED, the projection for the type A scenario by 2030 implies a continuation of the trend observed over the 2015-2020 period, which amounts to a doubling of capacity compared to the vision of MP1. As for solar power and wind capacity, forecasts for 2030 have been revised upwards very significantly in all scenarios with each new edition of the Med-TSO Masterplan, thus confirming the dynamism of these sectors in the Mediterranean.

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